by Barry Rubin | PJMedia.com | December 18, 2011
What's Hecuba to him, or he to Hecuba,
That he should weep for her? What would he do,
Had he the motive and the cue for passion
That I have? He would drown the stage with tears
And cleave the general ear with horrid speech….
–William Shakespeare, “Hamlet”
Or, in other words, do these writers, policymakers, and “experts” care what happens in the Middle East? War? Bloodshed? Repression? Christians fleeing; women being turned into chattel? Just a possible boost to their careers and a test for their theories. A good luncheon topic. But this is real, all too real.
First, a word on contingencies. Governments and political analysts are supposed to examine likely problems in order that they can be evaded or minimized. The time to be alarmed is not when problems become visible but when governments refuse to recognize their existence. Western regimes and analysts are generally taking a best-possible-case view on Egypt and other developing issues in the region. I’m tempted to say they are taking a fantasy view. They dismiss not just worst-case but highly likely case scenarios. Now that’s what’s alarming.
In the Sinai Peninsula, Hamas is building support bases and arms-manufacturing facilities including those for building rockets. Over time, these rockets will no doubt be upgraded. In other words, Egypt is becoming a safe haven for anti-Israel terrorism. We know that these attacks will come from the Gaza Strip. The only question is whether at some point they will come directly across the Egypt-Israel border.
Israel had a long experience with three comparable situations. In the 1950-56 era, Egypt was a safe haven for terror attacks into Israel; in the 1967-1970 period, Jordan played this role. During the 1970s and 1980s, even down to today, Lebanon did so, with the safe haven in Syria. The difference was that Israel did attack into Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and even occasionally into Syria in reponse to this situation.
Such an attack into Egypt in response to Egyptian involvement in attacks through the Gaza Strip is unthinkable given what an Egypt-Israel war would look like. And that doesn’t mean there won’t be sporadic attacks across the Egypt-Israel border also that would present similar problems.
There is a pattern here.
Israel, of course, is quickly building a border fence, paid for by a 2 percent cut in the budgets of government agencies, and thus the salaries of government employees.
Meanwhile, too, Libyan weapons, including Russian-made anti-plane rockets that can be fired by one man, are also making their way into the Gaza Strip. From there, or from Egyptian territory, one of them could be fired at an Israeli passenger plane on the Tel Aviv-Eilat route.
Israel has permitted more Egyptian military units to enter Sinai even though this was restricted by their peace treaty. But that doesn’t mean those forces will do anything, or at least do much, against these activities. After all, would Egypt’s army dare suppress Hamas though it is seen by most Egyptians — and soon by a majority in Egypt’s parliament — as heroic? What! Will they act as bodyguards for the evil Zionist entity that is allegedly committing genocide right next door? (That last sentence was a paraphrase of what a leading Egyptian “moderate” claimed in speaking to an American university audience.)
And let’s not forget that there are corrupt officers and also officers who sympathize with Hamas. What if they just don’t follow orders from Cairo?
So Israel’s first step is to go to the Egyptian army and ask that it do something. If it says “yes,” well and good. But what if it doesn’t do much or anything? Have you noticed that even now, the army keeps backing down to the Brotherhood? For example, the military junta claimed a share in writing the new Constitution and when the Brotherhood rejected this, the generals then pulled back. The parliament dominated by the Brotherhood and Salafists will write the Constitution without outside interference.
What does this tell us about the army’s future willingness or ability to stop the Islamists from running wild, attacking Israel, etc.?
There will also be the large Salafist contingent in parliament to keep happy. The Salafists will build networks to protect and help Hamas and small groups that might want to attack Israel from Egypt. Indeed, large parts of the Sinai are already developing toward anarchy and becoming a safe haven zone for international terrorists.
Next, what happens when there is an Islamist parliament, a president who is either Islamist or dependent on Brotherhood support, and an Islamist constitution? Who is going to order Egypt’s army to crack down on Hamas and to close its facilities? Nobody.
And finally, what happens when Israel goes to the United States and asks President Obama to put pressure on Egypt to close down Hamas operations? Just guess.
Here’s a wonderful example of how this system works in another country. In Lebanon, Hizballah is creating its own secure strategic communications network without any government sanction. In one place, local people attacked workers building Hizballah facilities in their village. The Lebanese communications minister refused to interfere, supporting Hizballah’s actions. He explained that the Lebanese government accepted the project since almost anything was justified since Hizballah was fighting Israel. The opposition publication, Now Lebanon, responded that this is “a phone network that will be used by Iran and Syria (let’s not mince words) to carry out its regional ambitions.”
But Lebanon’s government has no interest in restricting any war-making activities on Israel. So what can we expect in Egypt?
What counter-forces are going to make the problems go away? The army does not have to close Hamas facilities to maintain its own interests. Nor does it have to do so to keep U.S. aid. There is nothing that is going to block this from happening unless Hamas makes the huge mistake of interfering in Egyptian politics and becoming involved with those staging armed struggle within Egypt. Hizballah made that mistake a few years ago.
Want to know how Middle East politics really work? A couple of years ago Israel noted that the Egypt-Gaza smuggling level had gone way down. Western media praised Egypt for acting. In fact, what had happened was that Egyptian officers on the border had demanded a higher price in bribes; the smugglers had refused, so the officers had cracked down until they got more money at which point they opened the gates again.
I repeat: to point out the likelihood of such contingencies is of vital importance. The Israeli government is aware of these things and working to deal with them. What kind of planning and thinking for such dangerous situations is going on in the West? Little or none, because they don’t take these things seriously.
Source: http://pjmedia.com/barryrubin/2011/12/18/a-coming-war-threat-terrorists-are-developing-a-safe-haven-in-egypt-to-attack-israel/?singlepage=true
Argentina's Cozy Relations with Iran
by Anna Mahjar-Barducci | Hudson-NY.org | December 16, 2011
Hector Timerman (Pictured) recently rebutted an article, "Argentina Flirts with Iran as the West Watches Nervously," published by Reuters in which Reuters underlines Buenos Aires' "quietly reaching out to Iran, worrying key Western powers and Israel as they try to tighten Tehran's international isolation over its nuclear program."Reuters also quoted unnamed diplomats as saying that Argentina's motives for warming up to Iran are unclear: "In addition to boosting trade with Iran, some envoys said Argentina was pursuing a Brazilian-style foreign policy emphasizing ties with nonaligned developing nations,"
Timerman's reply was immediate. In Telam, the national news agency of Argentina, the Minister, while accusing Reuters of having refused to publish his reply to the article, strongly defended Argentina's relations with Iran. Timerman said that the growth of the bilateral trade with Iran was not the result of the political will of the government, but rather of private agents. He added that he felt irritated by the allegation that he had offered the Iranians to abandon the investigation into the 1994 terrorist attack in Buenos Aires against the Argentine Israelite Mutual Association (AMIA): "Our commitment is to the victims of AMIA and to the desire of justice shared by all the Argentines. Iran's cooperation [to solve the AMIA case] is relevant to advance this cause, and that explains as a necessary gesture of good will the fact that our U.N. delegate did not abandon his seat while the Iranian President was making his presentation before the General Assembly."
Timerman's letter, however, appears contradictory and full of meaningless explanations. He affirms that Argentina is not isolating Iran because a constructive dialogue with Teheran is "relevant" for the progress of the AMIA investigation. Hence, he claims people should regard, as a "gesture of goodwill," Argentina's ambassador to the UN, Jorge Arguello's having remained deferentially seated to listen to the usual rigmarole of the Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad against Israel and the promises to destroy it -- thus breaking with the tradition observed by other Western states to leave the hall when Ahmadinejad delivered his hate-filled speeches.
So, let us get this straight: To have Iran "help out" in the investigation of the bombing of the Jewish center in Buenos Aires, ?Argentina is ready to give a goodwill gesture in support of Iran's ambition to erase the whole of Israel off the map?
Timerman then said he felt irritated by the allegation that he offered the Iranian government Argentina's abandoning the investigation on the AMIA attack. In April 2010, however, the Argentinean paper Perfil stated it had received verifiable information that in a meeting in January with Iran's ally, Syrian President Bashar Assad, Timerman had offered to drop investigation relating to Iran's 1994 bombings in Buenos Aires in return, it seems, for deepening economic relations between Argentina and Iran.. According to Perfil, Syria then passed Timerman's offer to Iran. In a leaked cable quoted by the newspaper, Iran's Foreign Minister, Ali Akbar Salehi, allegedly told the Iranian President that "Argentina is no longer interested in solving those two attacks, but in exchange prefers improving its economic relations with Iran."
The Iranian government, perhaps secure in the knowledge that Argentina was not oing to pursue serious investigations, said that it now wanted to "uncover the truth" behind the AMIA bombing. Iran's Foreign Ministry wrote a statement declaring that, "the ministry denounces the fact that the truth about the criminal action has become the target of plots and political games and that Argentine officials at the time, whose illegal actions have been disclosed and convicted by the court in this regard, misled judicial investigation and set the stage for the escape of the real culprits behind the atrocity from the hands of justice through pointing a finger of blame at a number of nationals of the Islamic Republic of Iran."
Despite these contradictory remarks, Timerman said that Iran's offer was "an unprecedented and very positive step" [sic]. The Islamic Republic, however, denies that Iranian citizens were involved in the Buenos Aires bombing, and said that it is preparing its own report on the bombing to bring forth the truth. Given that in the past the Iranian government has accused the "Zionists" of perpetrating the 1994 bombing, what the report will most likely bring forth are loopy allegations that the "Jews" committed the attack against the Jewish center in Buenos Aires. Timerman apparently qualifies Iran's allegations as a "positive step" towards solving the AMIA's case.
For more than a decade, Argentina had done little to investigate the attacks. When Nestor Kirchner became president of Argentina in 2003, however, he vowed to reopen the case, and called the neglect of it "a national disgrace." Several years later, former Iranian President Ali Rafsanjani was among those indicted by Argentine prosecutors and sought by Interpol.
Relations between Iran and Argentina have been virtually frozen for years, but apparently the frost was only superficial; underneath, business was as good as ever, and getting better and better. Last year, Argentina's exports to Iran rose by 70%. reaching a hefty $ 1.5 billion. Iran has also become the most important buyer of Argentina's corn. It looks now as though even that superficial layer of frost has thawed.
One major forward step was made by Argentina's president Cristina Fernandez when, last September, she told the UN General Assembly that her country was ready to seek mediation with Iran. The timing of the announcement could not have come at a better time for Iran, then struggling against sanctions imposed by the West and looking for friends, old and new, who could help the Ayatollahs overcome their current difficulties. Her announcement could not have come in a worse time for Western chancelleries, which are aware that their current chance of success in the tug of war against Iran depends on the compactness of the Western front to impose harsh sanctions.
Reuters also reported that a Western diplomat had declared that "Iran and Argentina have recently been taking a number of overt steps - in some cases in response to pressure brought to bear by Iran - to open a clean slate in the countries' political relations."
Apart from obvious trading advantages, Argentina seems to be pursuing the path of other Latin American countries in a revival of non-aligned countries, which are anything but non-aligned. Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez has created a pro-Iranian, anti-Western school of thought in Latin America; Argentina's government is evidently among his disciples.
Source: http://www.hudson-ny.org/2675/argentina-iran-relations
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